Panorama da nova Xangai, com troço do rio Yang Tsé
Poço vertiginoso no interior do 3º maior arranha-céus
O maior arranha-céus de Xangai (desenho de arquitetos dos EUA )
Paisagem noturna de Xangai vista do rio Yang Tsé
segunda-feira, 30 de junho de 2025
A CHINA DE HOJE, O MUNDO DE AMANHÃ
Apesar do blackout informativo, novas alianças e movimentos audaciosos, nos BRICS, com a China e seus parceiros, vão moldando um Mundo multipolar novo, onde os EUA, não têm mais um papel hegemónico.
É isso mesmo que se infere dos dois documentários abaixo reproduzidos.
domingo, 29 de junho de 2025
COMO DESFAZER O DOMÍNIO IMPERIALISTA DOS EUA... DEVAGAR.
O império USA continua a lançar guerras sem fim. Como deveria o Mundo responder? Desfazendo o império USA, devagar👉Mergulhe profundamente na História em https://jeffrich.substack.com
sábado, 28 de junho de 2025
IMPERADOR CHIN, O DÉSPOTA ESCLARECIDO QUE REINOU HÁ 2200 ANOS
O documentário abaixo tem uma grande qualidade. Pelo que observei diretamente e por relatos de guias e por literatura que entretanto consultei, parece-me um somatório rigoroso do que se possa saber sobre este monumento (o exército subterrâneo de terracota do imperador Chin) e sobre o reinado do Imperador Chin.
Para mim, o que mais impressiona é o grau de investimento de esforço, de energia, de trabalho humano, numa época em que o número de artesãos disponíveis não deveria ser assim tão grande. Mas, apesar de tudo, terá sido um contingente capaz de moldar e de pintar mais de oito milhares de estátuas de soldados, em tamanho natural, com individualização da representação dos rostos: Vê-se que os rostos seguem modelos reais e não seria supreendente que reproduzissem os traços dos soldados de elite do imperador Chin.
Sem dúvida, que o imperador e todos os seus súbditos estavam convictos da existência real de um mundo subterrâneo, em que as pessoas mais poderosas poderiam continuar a sua vida, tal como a levaram a cabo, quando estavam vivas. Não são escassos os esforços para reproduzir todos os items de conforto e luxo. Num registo mais sombrio, as concubinas e servidores do imperador foram sacrificados para o acompanhar na viagem pelo reino subterrâneo.
O imperador Chin mostrou grande sabedoria e determinação para conseguir que o seu reinado pudesse derrotar e incorporar outros reinos rivais. Este feito, deveu-se a uma paciente construção dum exército de elite, treinando e mantendo os soldados em tempo de paz e não apenas recrutando mercenários em tempo de guerra. Por outro lado, Chin soube cativar com alianças e casamentos os monarcas dos reinos rivais. Usou todos os estratagemas, incluindo a guerra económica, como meio de enfraquecer um adversário antes de iniciar um confronto armado. Os seus espiões estavam por todo o lado e informavam-no desde o estado de preparação dos exércitos rivais, às intrigas palacianas.
Mas, o imperador Chin também foi um terrível déspota, que queimou vivos mais de seissentos sábios confucionistas, por suspeita de não serem inteiramente fiéis ao monarca. Muitos tratados preciosos (exemplares únicos, ou poucos exemplares) foram reunidos em pilhas gigantes e queimados, por suspeita paranoíca de que pudessem inspirar sentimentos contrários à sua ação ditatorial.
Como é que apesar das guerras e daqueles atos terrivelmente destruidores, o seu reinado atingiu uma tal prosperidade?
- Pensa-se que o abate de fronteiras alfandegárias promoveu o comércio entre os reinos; a instauração da promoção por mérito dos funcionários civis e da hierarquia do exército, e outras medidas administrativas, foram decisivas. Foi muito importante a unificação do chinês escrito, havendo - a partir deste imperador - modelos de escrita que todos os escribas e escolásticos tinham de respeitar. Igualmente, a unificação dos pesos e medidas, assim como a cunhagem de moeda única, foram também importantes, unificando os mercados nos vários reinos e trazendo maior fluidez ao comércio. No plano da técnica, houve também um salto qualitativo, quer no sistema de irrigações, quer nas indústrias de cerâmica e metalurgia. A agricultura certamente beneficiou da estabilidade resultante do fim das guerras entre reinos. Houve introdução de novas técnicas agrícolas. Na China havia práticas correntes em agricultura, que apenas se difundiram na Europa milhares de anos depois. Citemos a rotação das culturas para evitar o esgotamento dos solos e sua revitalização nos períodos de pousio e adubagem das terras usando estrume.
O imperador Chin era um terrível déspota: Porém, soube dotar-se de sábios, especialistas nos mais diversos ramos, que o aconselhavam. Graças aos conselhos destes peritos, as decisões imperiais produziram um real desenvolvimento económico, uma força militar que ninguém se atrevia a provocar e um controlo da classe artistocrática, através duma densa rede de informadores.
sexta-feira, 27 de junho de 2025
SÍRIA HOJE: DA QUEDA DO GOVERNO CENTRALIZADO, AO GOVERNO DA ALQUAIDA (por Vanessa Beeley)
A Síria soberana foi talhada em zonas dominadas por fações sob a influência da gestão terrorista da Turquia, de Israel, dos EUA, do Reino Unido e dos Estados Árabes do Golfo. Aqui, tentamos identificar os atores externos e seus respectivos gangs de fundamentalistas Takfiri, as suas agendas conflituais e os seus objetivos últimos:
Enquanto as narrativas ocidentais querem convencer-nos de que rebeldes sírios derrubaram por eles próprios um brutal ditador e o substituíram por um regime justo e democrático, a realidade está longe da ilusão fabricada pela CIA/MI6.
A Síria foi convertida de nação pluralista, que tinha gozado de segurança e estabilidade dos civis, apesar da guerra pela mudança de regime que se iniciou em 2011, num Estado fragmentado e traumatizado. Foi este Estado, com sua incapacidade de se defender e de proteger as suas fronteiras, que Israel destruíu imediatamente depois do golpe. O país foi dividido em zonas de influência controladas por gangs concorrentes, apoiados por um número crescente de potências internacionais. Os gangs de Takfiri estão quotidianamente a brutalizar e a assassinar minorias étnicas na Síria.
[Ler o restante conteúdo no link abaixo]
Syria Today: From the Fall of a Centralised Government to the Al Qaeda Junta
ESCOLHAS POÉTICAS: Guerras Sem Fim [OBRAS DE MANUEL BANET]
Gostava de voar para um país distante,
Muito mais distante, que a tecnologia atual
Nos pode transportar. Aí, pisaria o solo
e abraçaria as gentes; mas não teria ilusões:
Este país seria como os outros, apenas
Poupado aos horrores deste século moderno.
Não será algo assim que muitos de nós procuramos
Atingir? - O paraíso terreal ou refúgio
Contra a fealdade, a cobardia e crueldade
Dos nossos contemporâneos?
Estamos à procura do que não existe,
De uma utopia no sentido estricto
Não estamos porém errados, na essência:
É o nosso coração humano que nos diz
Outros procuram aconchego dentro da tribo
Dentro da família, do grupo a que pertencem
Não os critico pelo desejo de auto-preservação
Embora seja irrisório, neste Mundo em guerra
A guerra não poupa as simples gentes
Fustiga todos, todos nós somos sem-abrigo
Só os sanguinários poderosos têm meios;
Eles sabem-no e usam-se disso!
quinta-feira, 26 de junho de 2025
GUERRA DOS EUA -ATRAVÉS DE ISRAEL- CONTRA O IRÃO NÃO ACABOU
Brian Berletic, um dos mais brilhantes analistas de geoestratégia é entrevistado por Danny Haiphon.
Temos várias revelações, resultantes destes 12 dias de guerra de mísseis. Berletic clarifica a situação dos arsenais e das capacidades bélicas do Irão, de Israel e dos EUA, assim como dos aliados do Irão, Rússia e China. Também demonstra que as guerras são claramente dos EUA, por procuração (proxi wars) contra os seus inimigos através da Ucrânia, por um lado e dos israelitas, por outro.
Perante o mundo, ficou claro quem está a provocar a guerra. Este facto explica a atitude prudente do Irão: O seu comportamento mostra a realidade de uma guerra imposta ao Irão, em que os agressores são os iniciadores das ações bélicas. Cai por terra o argumento de Israel e dos EUA, de estarem a realizar ações «preemptivas» sobre um Irão ameaçador.
A agressão recente põe a descoberto a postura imperialista dos EUA e tem como efeito de pôr muitas nações em postura defensiva. Todo o mundo vê que a postura dos EUA tem sido contida e prudente, em relação à Rep. Popular Democrática da Coreia (possuindo armas nucleares), ao contrário doutros «inimigos», o Iraque, a Líbia, a Síria, atacados selvaticamente, sem possibilidade de se defenderem. Esta guerra de agressão mostra que o objetivo dos EUA (e de Israel) não é prevenir a aquisição de armamento nuclear pelo Irão. Pelo contrário, seu comportamento vai encorajar o Irão a adquirir realmente armas nucleares. Para já, prepara-se para sair da estrutura de controlo da energia nuclear pacífica, a IAEA. A transparência dos laboratórios e instalações de enriquecimento de urânio no Irão, perante esta instituição resultou em filtrar informações aos EUA que ajudaram estes a definir e realizar os ataques.
Por outro lado, muitos países vistos como não submissos à Pax Americana, estão agora a ponderar adquirir armas nucleares, pois viram a diferença clara do comportamento dos EUA, perante a Coreia do Norte e o Irão.
quarta-feira, 25 de junho de 2025
terça-feira, 24 de junho de 2025
MAGNÍFICO CONCERTO DE VIVALDI, QUASE DESCONHECIDO...
O barroco italiano é inesgotável. Mas, desse manancial, o mais prolífico e variado compositor, é António Vivaldi.
Vivaldi conseguiu elevar a arte do violino a um nível que nunca tinha alcançado, antes dele.
Proporcionou a base para um pleno desenvolvimento da forma orquestral do concerto.
As suas fórmulas podem parecer repetitivas a alguns. Porém e para além das convenções da época (início do séc. XVIII), Vivadi abriu o leque de possibilidades, com seus concertos para variados instrumentos, em combinações - elas próprias - variadas.
Pode-se também apreciar a riqueza e vigor da sua obra vocal, menos conhecida do grande público, porque as edições discográficas, durante muito tempo, favoreceram apenas a música instrumental do grande compositor veneziano. Mas há mais, muito mais, a apreciar em Vivaldi, que as celebérrimas 'Quatro Estações'.
O SEGUNDO CHOQUE PETROLÍFERO (PROF. WARWICK POWELL)
Por que razão a China está melhor posicionada que o Ocidente no caso de uma disrupção no estreito de Ormuz.
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No teatro volátil da geopolítica energética, poucos pontos de estrangulamento assumem tanta importância como o Estreito de Ormuz. Diariamente, cerca de 20 milhões de barris de petróleo não refinado (crude) e cerca de 20% do fornecimento mundial de petróleo, passam pelo estreito entre o Irão e Omã. Não é uma mera artéria regional; é a aorta do sistema energético global.
Enquanto as tensões se espalham e agudizam no Golfo, os cenários que antes pareciam remotos estão agora visíveis. Entre estes, está o encerramento do Estreito de Ormuz, uma ação que poderia cortar um quinto do fornecimento global de «crude». O Presidente dos EUA, Donald Trump virou-se para os media sociais vociferando contra as subidas de preços, enquanto, apelava ao Departamento de Energia dos EUA, com o seu slogan: “DRILL, BABY DRILL!!! And I mean NOW!!!” No momento em que transparecem notícias de que o parlamento iraniano aprovou medidas para encerrar o estreito de Ormuz (somente carecendo da aprovação do líder supremo para surtir efeito), o vice-presidente dos EUA JD Vance interrogava-se em público porque o Irão faria isso, argumentando que a economia do Irão depende do movimento do petróleo via Estreito de Ormuz. Parece que o VP não concebeu uma possibilidade do Irão exercer um fecho discricionário, em que os seus próprios navios seriam livres para circular.
Em qualquer caso, enquanto os participantes nos mercados e os governos estão a avaliar os custos de tal risco se concretizar, poucos parecem ter a noção da escala da deslocação decorrente de tal acontecimento. Os primeiros efeitos teriam implicações para os preços da energia e para a inflação; e depois, temos os efeitos numa segunda fase, com reverberações através do sistema financeiro e do mercado de obrigações do Tesouro (as «treasuries») dos EUA.
[Leia a continuação do artigo do Prof. Powell, em inglês, abaixo]
Shockwave Round 1: A Disruption of Historic Proportions
At present, approximately 20 million barrels per day (mbpd) transit Hormuz. Of this, around 75% heads to Asia, with China alone accounting for an estimated 6 mbpd. Should the Strait be shut entirely - and should no exemption be granted to Chinese shipments - the global market would face a sudden and unprecedented loss of up to 20% of daily crude supply.
This dwarfs previous oil shocks. During the 1973 Arab oil embargo, a 4–5% cut quadrupled prices. The 1979 Iranian Revolution saw a similar loss drive prices up more than 150%. In 1990, during the Gulf War, a disruption of around 6% pushed Brent crude from $15 to over $40 in a matter of weeks.
A 20% supply disruption, even if partially offset by strategic reserves, would likely drive prices into the $200–250 per barrel range. These are levels unseen in nominal terms, and devastating in real terms for most economies.
Two Scenarios: China Exempted or Not
As talk of closures bubble away, there is speculation that shipments of oil to China may be exempted. A similar approach has been evident in the Red Sea, where the Yemen-based Houthis have mounted a two-year campaign of targeted disruption that has largely seen ‘friendly’ shipments left alone.
If Chinese-bound oil is allowed to flow, we would see a net global market loss of around 14 mbpd, about 14% of total supply. This scenario would still send prices soaring, likely toward $150–200 per barrel, triggering energy-driven inflation spikes and forcing central banks into a grim choice between combating inflation and sustaining fragile growth. Global inflation would spike 2-4 percentage points.
But if China is also cut off - and must re-enter the global spot market to cover its 6 mbpd loss - the dynamics shift further. China would become a marginal buyer of last resort, aggressively bidding for African, Russian or Latin American barrels. The scramble for non-Gulf crude would tighten markets, deepen the price shock, and intensify global competition. In this case, prices would likely breach the $200–250 level, albeit potentially briefly. Global inflation could head toward 4-6%.
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China’s Relative Resilience
Yet, China is not the same oil-dependent economy it once was. Its energy system is evolving rapidly, giving it tools and buffers that the U.S., UK, and EU currently lack.
China’s oil use per unit of GDP has been falling for years, driven by rapid electrification of transport and industry. With EVs now making up over 40% of new car sales, and record renewable energy additions in 2024 (over 300 GW), crude oil is becoming a less central component of its energy and economic structure.
This is an energy structural change that many have noted, but few have commented on in terms of the transformation of energy sovereignty that this implies.
China’s crude oil imports peaked in 2020 at ~11.1 million bpd, and have flatlined or modestly declined since then. In 2023 imports were ~11.3 million bpd, and in 2024 they were ~11.04 million bpd (–1.9% year on year). Furthermore, China’s domestic refining capacity has surpassed 1 billion tonnes / year, while internal demand growth has slowed. China increasingly exports refined products rather than importing crude to meet domestic consumption. Domestic oil production has stabilised. Crude production has plateaued but remains significant (~4.3 million bpd), and shale and enhanced recovery technology have stabilised output in key basins (e.g., Daqing, Tarim and Bohai).
China holds an estimated 1.0–1.2 billion barrels in combined strategic and commercial reserves, equivalent to 90–100 days of imports. It also benefits from state-administered pricing mechanisms, which allow it to buffer domestic consumers from international volatility. In contrast to the markets in the West, China can temporarily shield households and critical industries from fuel inflation through administrative allocation and price controls.
China enters any oil shock from a position of ultra-low inflation, with CPI running under 1% in early 2025. This gives policymakers more room to absorb price pressures without unleashing second-round effects. Whereas Western governments rely on interest rates and subsidy schemes, China can deploy direct administrative levers: mandating priority fuel allocation, subsidising logistics chains and coordinating imports through state-owned enterprises. These tools enhance stability in a crisis and can quickly redirect domestic supply chains.
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The West’s Structural Exposure
By contrast, the U.S., UK, and EU are structurally exposed. These economies face a difficult set of conditions, defined by the following features:
Tighter energy markets, with reduced reserves (notably, U.S. SPR levels are near 40-year lows). Other OECD nations (such as Japan, Korea and the EU) may contribute, but can’t cover 20 mbpd with total IEA coordinated releases historically maxing out at ~6–7 mbpd, leaving a gap of ~13–14 mbpd;
Higher inflation baselines, particularly the UK, where core inflation remains sticky though it is fair to say that post-pandemic public sensitivity to inflation in the EU and U.S. should not be underestimated;
Greater reliance on market-based energy pricing. This limits the ability to insulate consumers. Alternatively, the political system will confront increased demands for fiscal interventions that may impact other objectives or public policy priorities; and
More fragile political consensus on fuel subsidies or rationing should it come to that.
A sudden oil spike to $200+ / bbl would likely add 2–4 percentage points to headline inflation in these economies. Petrol/gasoline, diesel, heating oil, jet fuel costs would surge. In the U.S., gasoline could jump to $6–8 per gallon; and in Europe and the UK, diesel and petrol prices would rise €0.50-€1.00/litre or more.
There are likely to be flow-on effects as a result of energy cost spikes and supply chain disruptions, as recently confirmed in a research paper by IMF researchers. In that paper, they examined inflation in 21 leading countries concluding that “the international rise and fall of inflation since 2020 largely reflected the direct and pass-through effects of headline shocks”. These shocks “occurred largely on account of energy price changes, although food price changes and indicators of supply chain problems also played a role.”
For the U.S., where rates are already tight, this would stall or reverse easing cycles and raise the risk of recession. For Europe and the UK, it would compound already fragile growth conditions and resurrect the spectre of 1970s-style stagflation.
A Reconfigured Global Market
If the crisis endures beyond a few weeks, expect a reshuffling of oil market alliances and logistics. China may negotiate enhanced supply corridors with Russia, Central Asia and African producers. It could also seek to broker new security arrangements for energy flows through the Indian Ocean and overland. At the same time, China could aim to expand RMB-denominated trade in energy, further eroding the dollar’s dominance. In short, China could convert its relative stability into geopolitical leverage, positioning itself as a central broker in the new energy order. The Shanghai Oil and Gas Exchange may get more action than it expected to see in the short term.
While everyone loses in an oil shock, not everyone loses equally. China’s structural reforms over the past decade, its strategic buffers and administrative capacities give it a measure of insulation that the liberalised economies of the West currently lack. If the Strait of Hormuz closes - and global prices surge - the West may find itself not only economically exposed, but also strategically outflanked.
Demand destruction at $150+ / bbl could slow industrial consumption in OECD economies, further hampering industrial output. Indeed it is conceivable that any prolonged energy supply shock of the type discussed here could be the final nail in the coffin for many western European enterprises hanging on by their nails. This is a death spiral. On top of this, speculative flows would amplify price volatility with hedge funds and traders pushing pricing beyond “fundamentals.” Some in Europe see the writing on the wall; Hungarian PM Orban, for example, is calling on the EU to drop its planned ban of Russian oil by 2027. Slovakia is backing Hungary on this.
Meanwhile, emerging markets are likely to suffer from both rising oil import costs and global capital outflows, with some exposed to worsening food insecurity risks as fertiliser and logistics costs rise.
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Shockwave Round 2
The second, and potentially more destabilising shockwave occasioned by a truncation of daily crude supply in the order or 20%, will fall in the heart of the global financial system: the U.S. Treasury market. What begins as an energy crisis could swiftly mutate into a full-spectrum financial crisis, with consequences for inflation, sovereign credibility and the long-term role of the U.S. dollar.
A Market Already Under Strain
The Treasury market is already under pressure. The U.S. is running structural deficits exceeding $1.5 trillion annually. Treasury issuance is at record highs, just to keep up with debt rollovers and net fiscal appropriations. Liquidity in off-the-run Treasury securities is thin, while the market relies increasingly on leveraged speculators (hedge funds using basis trades) to function.
Foreign buyers, once the bedrock of U.S. debt demand, are in retreat. China, Japan, and oil-rich Gulf states have all reduced holdings of Treasuries in recent years. The U.S. domestic market, via primary dealers and money market funds, now absorbs more of the burden, but it does so with shorter duration appetites and heightened risk sensitivity. I have explored these issues at length elsewhere.
Treasuries in the Crosshairs
A sudden spike in oil to $200+ / bbl injects immediate inflationary pressure into the U.S. economy. Gasoline prices could surge above $7 / gallon. Freight, food, plastics and fertilisers would all reflect the new cost base. Within weeks we could see headline CPI rising 2–4%, depending on pass-through intensity. Add to this the inflationary effects of tariffs and we have powerful forces at work reducing USD purchasing power. Market expectations (or hopes) for Fed rate cuts would vanish. Indeed, interest rate hikes might return to the table.
Real yields on Treasuries would need to rise to keep pace with inflation. But that means falling bond prices, and fast. The Treasury market, already crowded with supply, would then face waning demand, rising yields, and panic-driven volatility. In short: the conditions for a sell-off ripen. In a fragile market structure, this is not a distant risk. We’ve seen shadows of it before: in the March 2020 Treasury market dislocation, and the UK gilt crisis of 2022, where leveraged positions and margin calls cascaded into liquidity breakdowns.
In this scenario, the Federal Reserve becomes trapped. On the one hand, raising rates to tame oil-driven inflation could deepen bond losses, risking a full-blown market seizure. On the other hand, if the Fed intervenes with QE or yield curve control, it would be accused of monetising inflation, triggering a loss of confidence in the dollar itself. Either path further undermines the safe-haven status of Treasuries, long the foundation of global pricing benchmarks, collateral frameworks and central bank reserves.
China’s Asymmetric Advantage
Meanwhile, as noted, China may face high oil prices and energy volatility, but not only is its energy structure better equipped to cope with this, on the financial front, it is less exposed to Treasury market contagion. This is because its sovereign debt is domestically held, with minimal foreign influence, and China doesn’t rely on offshore capital markets to offset deficits. The People’s Bank of China can act with direct fiscal-monetary coordination, avoiding the incoherent two-handedness of Western policy.
A post-shock environment may accelerate China’s de-dollarisation strategy. The move to RMB-denominated oil deals with Russia, Iran and others would deepen. The attractiveness of yuan-settled trade for the Global South would rise, especially if the dollar becomes volatile. China’s role as a broker of new multipolar financial flows would expand, from energy payments to infrastructure and development finance. It is unsurprising that the head of the PBOC, Pan Gongsheng, has recently discussed the importance for global financial stability of expanding currency multipolarity.
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A Crisis of Confidence in the Dollar
The first oil shock of the 21st century will not be confined to petrol (gas) stations. Its second-order effects - in bond markets, central banks and global capital flows - will be no less profound. For decades, the U.S. dollar and Treasuries were considered immune to domestic dysfunction, protected in effect by sheer global dependence. But that reliance has become a double-edged sword. In a crisis born of oil and spread through debt, the global financial system’s historic anchoring mechanisms will come under further strain. The rethinking will only accelerate.
And once again, while everyone will feel the pain, China is arguably best placed to absorb the shock, reshape the rules of engagement and emerge with enhanced leverage in a reconfigured global system. As history shows, oil shocks often rewire global power. The next one may do just that - only this time, China could emerge as the stabiliser. The West, in contrast, must prepare not only for an inflationary spike but for a crisis of confidence in its own financial core.
No wonder Trump and Vance were in a hurry to tone down the risk of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked, and to find pathways to de-escalating a conflict that could rapidly spiral out of control.
ERALD KOLASI PÕE A NU OS MITOS DA ECONOMIA MAINSTREAM
COPIADO DE https://substack.com/@technodynamics/note/c-125005177?r=9hbco
A melhor exposição resumida do aspecto ideológico (disfarçado) de toda a teoria económica baseada na noção (ideológica) de «livre mercado». Não admira que este pensador seja proveniente da física. Nos seus escritos, aborda a economia pelo ângulo da termodinâmica.
Erald Kolasi
One of the founding myths of modern economics is the claim that money developed as a medium of exchange specifically to overcome the limits of bartering. It’s an old idea that goes all the way back to at least Aristotle, but in more recent times it was championed by Adam Smith and it’s become an article of faith everywhere from college textbooks to the elite intellectual circles of academia.
According to the standard version of the story, the world before money was cumbersome and inefficient. In order to trade goods with other people, you had to have exactly what they wanted and they had to have exactly what you wanted, the famous “double coincidence of wants.” If you have shoes to trade and want eggs in return, but the other guy who has the eggs actually wants milk, then you two will not be able to exchange your goods. But the invention of money solved this problem quite nicely. As long as you have it, you can always use money to buy anything for sale in a market. You’re not restricted to trading with someone who will only accept milk or eggs because everyone will accept money. The big achievement of a monetary economy, according to the standard neoclassical view, was to help facilitate more market exchanges and transactions. In effect, money acts as a kind of lubricant for market activity; it lets people trade more and faster. It’s a nice story, but it’s also dead wrong.
From David Graeber to Richard Lee, anthropologists have long demonstrated that virtually all contemporary yet pre-modern societies, along with most ancient societies, distributed resources on the basis of credit and social trust, not tit-for-tat exchanges. Early economies mostly operated through gift-giving and communal sharing; there was virtually no market exchange of the kind that we see in our world. Overlapping systems of credit and debt governed the process of economic distribution. People would share things with each other by simply making polite demands on the basis of social trust and custom. Failure to share with members of your community could lead to social ostracism and exclusion. Once a person gave something away, like a fish, the other person receiving the gift became indebted to the creditor, meaning she had to give something back to the creditor in the future. She could settle the debt through anything considered roughly equivalent by the standards of her society. For example, a spear might be seen as having about the same worth as a fish, so she could give back a spear to the person who gave her the fish. Notice that there’s no immediate exchange here; the fish is given on credit, on social trust, and the spear doesn’t have to be given back until much later. There’s no bartering happening either; the fish and the spear are not getting traded at a fixed point in time. In fact, they’re not being traded at all. They’re being used as accounting tools to satisfy a social obligation. Any other objects or resources would do, as long as they’re perceived to be roughly equivalent. Settling a debt with something perceived as vastly unequal or deficient could lead to resentment and even violence.
Credit dominated even among the early ancient societies that used various forms of money, like the Sumerian civilization. The Sumerians did have silver rings and ingots and denominated much of their debts in silver. But as Graeber pointed out, most people didn't actually settle these debts with silver because they simply didn't have any, so credit was the order of the day. People would show up at the local tavern or temple and borrowed what they needed or wanted on credit, then later paid back their debts with whatever they had, usually with their crops and grains.
Furthermore, the double coincidence of wants is a fake problem that exists in the imagination of bored economists. In the real world, people grow up in common social environments, meaning that their desires are highly correlated and socially constrained. No one who grows up in a typical social environment has completely random and arbitrary preferences. It’s almost inconceivable that someone in an ancient village would have wanted something that his wider community did not have. Even in the modern age of capitalism, where people are overwhelmed by millions of options and commodities, our desires and preferences are still influenced and constrained by our social communities.
Why do economists care about the history of barter and money in the first place? Neoclassical theorists repeat this nonsense because it’s a way of justifying and excusing the grotesquely corrupt distribution of wealth under modern capitalism. The idea is simple: if what you get in life is determined by free and fair exchanges in an impartial market, then the resulting distribution of resources is also fair and, in some sense, “morally just.” This is the fundamental reason why neoclassical theory is obsessed with the concept of exchange: it’s a way of hiding and obscuring the social relations and power dynamics that actually determine who gets what in life. There’s something about the concept of exchange that feels so reciprocal and mutually acceptable: you give me what I want (shoes), and I give you what you want (money). I have comprehensively refuted this silly position in many of my Substack posts, which you can read for free. The main problem for the neoclassicals is that the terms and standards which govern the exchange process are themselves determined by other factors. The distribution of wealth, and virtually all other economic outcomes, are strongly affected by everything from wars and natural disasters to political and class struggles. These factors collectively impose powerful constraints on how market exchanges happen. Focusing on the process of market exchange is just a cheap trick for marginalizing these large-scale degrees of freedom. Markets never bring about order on their own, they emerge from pre-existing political and economic orders. They are not spontaneous, but constructed.
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segunda-feira, 23 de junho de 2025
«Isto é diferente de tudo o que já vimos antes...»: Pepe Escobar
Pepe Escobar esclarece as reais jogadas e os interesses em jogo. Mas isto não é um «jogo» é uma continuação de uma tragédia de guerra em vários pontos geográficos, uma IIIª Guerra Mundial que não se parece com as outras duas... e pode vir a ser ainda mais terrível.
PS1: SIGA OS DESENVOLVIMENTOS, da guerra Irão/Israel, através do canal seguinte, com Pepe Escobar e Danny Haiphong:
ISRAEL FORA DE CONTROLO: PROF. ALFREDO de ZAYAS PUBLICA IMPORTANTE ARTIGO
Leia o artigo na página de Substack de Pascal Lottaz de «Neutrality Studies»
PS1:
Veja, em baixo, um campo de refugiados em Gaza, no meio das ruínas causadas pelos incessantes bombardeamentos do exército de Israel.
Retirado do artigo « Unyielding Heart of the Palestinian Cause in Gaza» citando Ramzy Baroud:
Within an astonishing 600 days, Palestinians in Gaza, largely cut off, isolated, and targeted for extermination, have managed to expose Zionism more comprehensively and effectively than all the cumulative work undertaken over the course of an entire century.
This monumental achievement, too, is a direct byproduct of their profound sumud.
It is now time to critically revisit our language of solidarity with Palestine, consciously liberating it from our own ideological, political, and often personal priorities, and decisively reshaping it based solely on the authentic priorities of the Palestinians themselves.
quarta-feira, 11 de junho de 2025
OS ÚLTIMOS DIAS DE GAZA (POR CHRIS HEDGES)
Chris Hedges publica no Substack esta crónica (ver abaixo), que é um veredicto: A «civilização» ocidental está morta. Morreu, não de exaustão material, de esgotamento de recursos, ou de uma invasão por povos rivais, mas antes pela sua própria decadência moral.
Chris Hedges faz aquilo que qualquer homem ou mulher dignos, que tenham o conhecimento hoje dos tão largamente espalhados relatos e imagens do genocídio dos palestinianos às mãos do governo sionista e das suas forças armadas, tem de fazer: Tem de concordar que a monstruosidade destes atos continuados, planeados, executados friamente, nada ficam a dever à horrorosa política de limpeza étnica/genocidária dos nazis, no século passado.
Porém, lamentavelmente, as pessoas não aprenderam nada com o holocausto das populações judias, ciganas, de resistentes de vários povos e etnias, sacrificadas pelos nazis. Foram erigidos monumentos às vítimas, abertos museus, lembrados em palavras escritas ou faladas, mas... O horror de tudo isso que a humanidade viveu, volta agora: cerca de oitenta anos após o desmoronamento final do III Reich, vencido pelas forças aliadas.
Eu tenho de confessar que o escrito abaixo de Chris Hedges me horripila. Não por ser exagerado, não por ser alarmista, não por hipertrofiar certos aspectos da realidade... mas, antes pelo contrário.
O que isto significa é que a chamada «civilização ocidental» já estava morta por dentro, apodrecida, como árvore que se conserva erguida, com o tronco principal, os ramos, as folhas (embora secas), mas cuja seiva deixou de correr, definitivamente. Qualquer vendaval irá abatê-la, pois ela já não desenvolve atividade vital, já não é ativa no ecossistema, as suas raízes permanecem, mas são estruturas ocas, serão aproveitadas por fauna, flora e microorganismos, que reciclam os materiais das árvores mortas.
Para mim, e para muitas pessoas que raciocinam sobre estas coisas, a civilização ocidental poderá dar ainda aparência de vida, durante anos ou até (sabe-se lá...) decénios. Mas, não será uma verdadeira vida; a pseudo-vida será como dos zombies, que se mexem, andam, gesticulam, mas sua vontade e alma não lhes pertencem mais.
Gaza assinala o crime coletivo sem perdão possível; não apenas para os israelitas, que segundo sondagem recente, «aprovam maioritariamente» o genocídio dos palestinianos. Igualmente, não poderá haver perdão para todos os que se calaram, que viraram a cara, que ficaram quietos; nem para os que tinham poder para mudar o rumo das coisas: Se tivessem feito um gesto, tomado uma posição, teriam contribuído para salvar vidas, vidas inocentes.
Mas o comportamento dos poderosos «não choca» a imensa maiora dos cidadãos. Muito mal vai a gente que, na tal «civilização» ocidental, se baseia na fruição do instante, na ilusão da publicidade, no consumo hedónico, na indiferença a tudo o que não sejam seus próprios interesses mesquinhos.
Creio que são estas pessoas, essencialmente, já estavam preparadas para aprovar, pela passiva, qualquer ato, desde que este não pusesse em causa o seu interesse mesquinho. Esta maioria, «ensinada» a viver na passividade está - com certeza pronta - para se comportar dum modo semelhante, perante nova situação de holocausto de outro povo distante. Mas, também estará pronta a reagir assim com seus vizinhos, cidadãos que falam a mesma língua, trabalham e consomem como eles, e são portadores dos mesmos documentos de identidade.
Muitos, nos países do chamado «Terceiro Mundo», anseiam pela sua derrocada definitiva. Eu estou ansioso pelo mesmo que eles: Não me interessam mais os falsos juramentos, as elaboradas «defesas dos direitos humanos» e os discursos com relentos de colonialismo e de imperialismo. Seja como for, a queda desta «civilização» está traçada; as únicas incógnitas são o «quando» e o «como» acontecerá.
Gente cobarde e chafurdando na lama moral que nutre os seus cérebros apodrecidos, não tem real futuro: A morte da civilização que produz estes monstros já ocorreu. O horror de Gaza foi a constatação do facto já consumado, uma «autópsia», uma «certidão de óbito».
 This is the end. The final blood-soaked chapter of the genocide. It will be over soon. Weeks. At most. Two million people are camped out amongst the rubble or in the open air. Dozens are killed and wounded daily from Israeli shells, missiles, drones, bombs and bullets. They lack clean water, medicine and food. They have reached a point of collapse. Sick. Injured. Terrified. Humiliated. Abandoned. Destitute. Starving. Hopeless. In the last pages of this horror story, Israel is sadistically baiting starving Palestinians with promises of food, luring them to the narrow and congested nine-mile ribbon of land that borders Egypt. Israel and its cynically named Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), allegedly funded by Israel’s Ministry of Defense and the Mossad, is weaponizing starvation. It is enticing Palestinians to southern Gaza the way the Nazis enticed starving Jews in the Warsaw Ghetto to board trains to the death camps. The goal is not to feed the Palestinians. No one seriously argues there is enough food or aid hubs. The goal is to cram Palestinians into heavily guarded compounds and deport them. What comes next? I long ago stopped trying to predict the future. Fate has a way of surprising us. But there will be a final humanitarian explosion in Gaza’s human slaughterhouse. We see it with the surging crowds of Palestinians fighting to get a food parcel, which has resulted in Israeli and US private contractors shooting dead at least 130 and wounding over seven hundred others in the first eight days of aid distribution. We see it with Benjamin Netanyahu’s arming ISIS-linked gangs in Gaza that loot food supplies. Israel, which has eliminated hundreds of employees with the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), doctors, journalists, civil servants and police in targeted assassinations, has orchestrated the implosion of civil society. I suspect Israel will facilitate a breach in the fence along the Egyptian border. Desperate Palestinians will stampede into the Egyptian Sinai. Maybe it will end some other way. But it will end soon. There is not much more Palestinians can take. We—full participants in this genocide—will have achieved our demented goal of emptying Gaza and expanding Greater Israel. We will bring down the curtain on the live-streamed genocide. We will have mocked the ubiquitous university programs of Holocaust studies, designed, it turns out, not to equip us to end genocides, but deify Israel as an eternal victim licensed to carry out mass slaughter. The mantra of never again is a joke. The understanding that when we have the capacity to halt genocide and we do not, we are culpable, does not apply to us. Genocide is public policy. Endorsed and sustained by our two ruling parties. There is nothing left to say. Maybe that is the point. To render us speechless. Who does not feel paralyzed? And maybe, that too, is the point. To paralyze us. Who is not traumatized? And maybe that too was planned. Nothing we do, it seems, can halt the killing. We feel defenseless. We feel helpless. Genocide as spectacle. I have stopped looking at the images. The rows of little shrouded bodies. The decapitated men and women. Families burned alive in their tents. The children who have lost limbs or are paralyzed. The chalky death masks of those pulled from under the rubble. The wails of grief. The emaciated faces. I can’t. This genocide will haunt us. It will echo down history with the force of a tsunami. It will divide us forever. There is no going back. And how will we remember? By not remembering. Once it is over, all those who supported it, all those who ignored it, all those who did nothing, will rewrite history, including their personal history. It was hard to find anyone who admitted to being a Nazi in post-war Germany, or a member of the Klu Klux Klan once segregation in the southern United States ended. A nation of innocents. Victims even. It will be the same. We like to think we would have saved Anne Frank. The truth is different. The truth is, crippled by fear, nearly all of us will only save ourselves, even at the expense of others. But that is a truth that is hard to face. That is the real lesson of the Holocaust. Better it be erased. In his book One Day, Everyone Will Have Always Been Against This, Omar El Akkad writes:
You can see my interview with El Akkad here. You cannot decimate a people, carry out saturation bombing over 20 months to obliterate their homes, villages and cities, massacre tens of thousands of innocent people, set up a siege to ensure mass starvation, drive them from land where they have lived for centuries and not expect blowback. The genocide will end. The response to the reign of state terror will begin. If you think it won’t you know nothing about human nature or history. The killing of two Israeli diplomats in Washington and the attack against supporters of Israel at a protest in Boulder, Colorado, are only the start. Chaim Engel, who took part in the uprising at the Nazis’ Sobibor death camp in Poland, described how, armed with a knife, he attacked a guard in the camp. “It’s not a decision,” Engel explained years later. “You just react, instinctively you react to that, and I figured, ‘Let us to do, and go and do it.’ And I went. I went with the man in the office and we killed this German. With every jab, I said, ‘That is for my father, for my mother, for all these people, all the Jews you killed.’” Does anyone expect Palestinians to act differently? How are they to react when Europe and the United States, who hold themselves up as the vanguards of civilization, backed a genocide that butchered their parents, their children, their communities, occupied their land and blasted their cities and homes into rubble? How can they not hate those who did this to them? What message has this genocide imparted not only to Palestinians, but to all in the Global South? It is unequivocal. You do not matter. Humanitarian law does not apply to you. We do not care about your suffering, the murder of your children. You are vermin. You are worthless. You deserve to be killed, starved and dispossessed. You should be erased from the face of the earth. “To preserve the values of the civilized world, it is necessary to set fire to a library,” El Akkad writes:
There are people I have known for years who I will never speak to again. They know what is happening. Who does not know? They will not risk alienating their colleagues, being smeared as an antisemite, jeopardizing their status, being reprimanded or losing their jobs. They do not risk death, the way Palestinians do. They risk tarnishing the pathetic monuments of status and wealth they spent their lives constructing. Idols. They bow down before these idols. They worship these idols. They are enslaved by them. At the feet of these idols lie tens of thousands of murdered Palestinians. Originally produced for Scheerpost |
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