ESPANTEM-SE…«a mudança é tão necessária quanto impossível»
Abaixo, transcrevo um artigo de análise do Deutche Bank.
Fui buscar o referido documento ao excelente blog ZERO HEDGE
The price of
dissensus
Anti-global
sentiment has been the loudest message of the current presidential campaign in the
US. The most likely origin has
been a buildup of discontent due to failure to develop a convincing
response to economic slowdown in the last years. This has recently emerged as
the main theme of public discourse. Current presidential campaign has highlighted
to what extent the Change is as necessary as it
is politically impossible.
The underlying
problem can be traced back to the fact that economic interests have become
increasingly global while politics, the ability to decide, remained
passionately local and, as such, unable to operate effectively at the planetary
level.
Power to act has
been moving away to the politically uncontrollable, global space and political
institutions have become irrelevant to the life problems. In that
configuration, growth comes at social costs. Impotence of politics reinforces
dominance of the global which undermines political power further. As a consequence,
mainstream parties are being blamed for bad economic situations and losing
their power and public support. Their representatives, both left and right, are
seen as representing interests of global capital and are perceived as defenders
of status quo.
Politics is viewed
as a problem, instead of a solution while social costs caused by this state of
affairs are being recognized and articulated by the emerging populist wings,
whose main novelty has been their hostility to global oligarchies. These parties have
been gaining traction in these elections. The erosion of cohesion within the
mainstream parties has been causing political reorganizations that transcend
traditional division into political left and right.
The political
landscape is no longer one-dimensional. Political manifold has developed a more
complicated topology. In addition to the left and right, there is a
“transverse” direction which represents the antagonism between the local and
the global. This is illustrated in Fig 1. Double red lines represent
antagonisms. The three corners are labeled metaphorically by the political
representatives who had highest visibility during the campaign.
Relative position
of the three political expressions are no longer defined by the modes of
proposed social organization (left/right), but also where
they stand relative to the global capital interests. The two populist wings are
opposed in terms of their preferred mode of social organization, but are unified in
terms of their opposition to global capital as well as to the political center
which is aligned with it. Although the elections are most likely to be won by
the centrist party, the voice of the populist
wings have been sufficiently loud that they could no longer be ignored. In all
likelihood, the new administration will be facing even more fractured consensus
than before where higher level of compromise and different alliances will have
to be forged -- if that is not done in the
first four years, the problem will return potentially even bigger in the next
elections. The concessions
are expected to have protectionist overtones while compromises and alliances
are expected to be made in the context of fiscal policy.